Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
